Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +1.9% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.0% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +1.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.57% | 1.52% | -1.99% | 0.21% | 1.33% | 0.54% | -1.62% | -0.21% | -1.27% | 1.21% | ||
| 2025 | 1.16% | 1.05% | -0.24% | -0.59% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.88% | 0.50% | 1.93% | 0.67% | 0.14% | -1.19% |
| 2024 | -1.47% | -0.38% | 0.53% | -2.15% | 1.80% | 1.30% | 2.17% | 0.42% | 1.80% | -0.98% | 1.74% | -0.73% |
| 2023 | 2.96% | -1.96% | 2.18% | 0.86% | -1.64% | 0.08% | -1.27% | -0.10% | -2.51% | 0.09% | 4.48% | 3.56% |
| 2022 | -3.51% | -0.73% | -2.98% | -3.63% | 0.03% | -2.21% | 3.92% | -2.79% | -0.67% | -0.77% | 2.80% | -1.49% |
| 2021 | -1.31% | -2.73% | -1.28% | 0.03% | 0.60% | 1.07% | 1.02% | -0.20% | -1.51% | -0.97% | 0.79% | 1.75% |
| 2020 | 0.53% | -3.33% | 5.26% | 0.37% | 1.79% | 1.43% | -1.41% | 0.39% | -0.87% | 1.18% | 0.51% | |
| Avg | -0.27% | -0.39% | -1.02% | -0.00% | 0.36% | 0.38% | 0.68% | -0.54% | -0.26% | -0.47% | 1.85% | 0.40% |
XBB.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XBB.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XBB.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XBB.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes