Seasonality
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Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +3.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35% | 2.48% | -3.45% | 3.63% | 3.48% | 1.46% | -0.92% | 1.46% | -0.74% | -0.64% | ||
| 2025 | 2.96% | -0.26% | -1.84% | -1.59% | 3.17% | 2.16% | 1.09% | 1.94% | 3.59% | 1.61% | 1.10% | -1.01% |
| 2024 | 0.45% | 2.46% | 2.30% | -1.96% | 2.62% | 0.93% | 3.05% | 0.45% | 2.14% | -0.10% | 4.05% | -1.44% |
| 2023 | 4.83% | -1.22% | 1.50% | 1.54% | -1.71% | 1.91% | 1.52% | -0.42% | -3.21% | -0.96% | 5.67% | 3.28% |
| 2022 | -3.59% | -1.53% | -0.21% | -4.68% | -0.24% | -5.47% | 5.24% | -2.03% | -3.48% | 2.80% | 4.90% | -2.79% |
| 2021 | -0.31% | 1.06% | 0.88% | 1.28% | 0.99% | 2.18% | 1.19% | 1.84% | -2.44% | 1.67% | 0.04% | 2.24% |
| 2020 | -3.67% | -8.22% | 7.54% | 2.51% | 1.55% | 2.73% | 1.62% | -0.76% | -1.78% | 6.61% | 1.56% | |
| Avg | 0.95% | -0.10% | -1.29% | 0.82% | 1.55% | 0.67% | 1.99% | 0.69% | -0.70% | 0.54% | 3.73% | 0.31% |
XBAL.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
XBAL.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
XBAL.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
XBAL.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes