VFVVanguard S&P 500 Index ETFTorontoETF
C$189.37−C$1.05Down0.55%Oct 26, 2026 close
Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.0% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.4% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +5.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.61% | -0.61% | -3.12% | 7.96% | 6.79% | 1.70% | -1.10% | 1.54% | 2.31% | -1.94% | ||
| 2025 | 3.86% | -1.78% | -6.26% | -4.82% | 5.74% | 4.37% | 4.03% | 0.99% | 5.02% | 3.21% | -0.12% | -1.80% |
| 2024 | 3.04% | 6.35% | 2.94% | -2.43% | 3.88% | 3.92% | 2.14% | -0.08% | 2.38% | 2.07% | 6.71% | 0.02% |
| 2023 | 4.33% | 0.11% | 2.60% | 1.79% | 0.72% | 3.87% | 2.78% | 0.84% | -4.37% | -0.07% | 6.81% | 2.06% |
| 2022 | -4.68% | -3.33% | 2.33% | -6.37% | -1.22% | -6.60% | 8.32% | -1.45% | -4.49% | 6.52% | 4.14% | -5.12% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | 2.38% | 3.02% | 2.88% | -1.14% | 5.17% | 2.99% | 4.16% | -4.32% | 4.56% | 2.54% | 3.29% |
| 2020 | -6.66% | -8.68% | 11.81% | 3.85% | 0.26% | 4.30% | 4.40% | -1.87% | -2.68% | 8.20% | 1.68% | |
| Avg | 1.10% | -0.50% | -1.03% | 1.54% | 2.66% | 1.81% | 3.35% | 1.49% | -0.76% | 2.27% | 4.71% | 0.02% |
VFV.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VFV.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VFV.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes
VFV.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data