Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.6% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.65% | 7.44% | -4.18% | 3.88% | 2.21% | 0.79% | 1.23% | 3.04% | -2.54% | 1.68% | ||
| 2025 | 3.74% | -0.32% | -1.67% | -0.14% | 5.50% | 2.72% | 1.75% | 4.84% | 5.29% | 0.85% | 3.76% | 1.29% |
| 2024 | 0.52% | 2.01% | 4.11% | -1.82% | 2.57% | -1.29% | 5.78% | 1.36% | 3.08% | 0.98% | 6.65% | -3.29% |
| 2023 | 7.49% | -2.38% | -0.20% | 2.98% | -4.99% | 3.50% | 2.47% | -1.24% | -3.20% | -3.10% | 7.41% | 3.85% |
| 2022 | -0.16% | 0.07% | 4.04% | -5.09% | 0.12% | -8.60% | 4.54% | -1.48% | -4.34% | 5.59% | 5.50% | -4.88% |
| 2021 | -0.17% | 4.35% | 4.14% | 2.42% | 3.58% | 2.37% | 0.91% | 1.39% | -2.20% | 5.05% | -1.44% | 2.95% |
| 2020 | -5.84% | -17.77% | 11.19% | 2.74% | 2.33% | 4.49% | 2.21% | -2.10% | -3.22% | 11.07% | 1.45% | |
| Avg | 2.01% | 0.76% | -1.65% | 1.92% | 1.68% | 0.26% | 3.03% | 1.45% | -0.86% | 1.03% | 5.49% | 0.23% |
VCN.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
VCN.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
VCN.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
VCN.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes