Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +5.5% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -1.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +8.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.32% | 6.66% | -3.20% | 4.35% | 1.77% | 1.87% | 1.84% | 2.29% | -2.47% | 2.92% | ||
| 2025 | 4.17% | -0.45% | -1.96% | -0.06% | 5.23% | 2.20% | 1.64% | 4.77% | 4.68% | 0.81% | 3.53% | 1.25% |
| 2024 | 0.54% | 1.88% | 3.75% | -2.13% | 2.63% | -1.81% | 6.13% | 1.58% | 3.08% | 0.84% | 6.47% | -3.29% |
| 2023 | 7.43% | -2.60% | -0.50% | 3.53% | -5.27% | 3.55% | 2.12% | -1.46% | -3.17% | -3.20% | 7.93% | 4.07% |
| 2022 | -0.24% | -0.10% | 3.98% | -4.93% | 0.08% | -8.35% | 4.00% | -1.69% | -3.89% | 5.69% | 5.57% | -5.40% |
| 2021 | -0.33% | 4.45% | 4.57% | 2.29% | 3.82% | 2.66% | 0.85% | 1.33% | -1.95% | 5.42% | -0.96% | 3.19% |
| 2020 | -5.39% | -15.68% | 9.33% | 2.89% | 2.35% | 4.05% | 2.21% | -1.86% | -3.50% | 10.63% | 0.94% | |
| Avg | 1.87% | 0.64% | -1.29% | 1.77% | 1.59% | 0.35% | 2.95% | 1.29% | -0.80% | 1.01% | 5.53% | 0.13% |
HXT.TO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
HXT.TO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
HXT.TO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
HXT.TO Distribution of Daily % Changes